The hardening of positions between the government and the opposition and the spread of anti-government protests in the western regions of the country have increased the probability of a serious administrative crisis, which could lead to a power vacuum and prolonged political uncertainty. Ukraine, the largest country in Eastern Europe, is sandwiched between Russia and the West. It is a kind of pawn between Russia and the West. For the West, the EU trade deal would mean its reach would extend further east; on the contrary, the Russians see Ukraine as the key to maintaining their territory. It played a key role in the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991. But six years later, through newly elected President Viktor Yanukovych, head of the Party of Regions, it was back in the clutches of its powerful oligarchs and Russia. So the people got neither the rule of law nor the democracy they had imagined. The politics of Ukraine takes place within the framework of a presidential representative democratic republic and a multi-party system. European leaders have blamed the Russians for the crisis and have even floated the idea of sanctions against Ukraine if more blood is shed. But in the Europe-Russia tug of war the Russians are more motivated. The EU has, over several years, negotiated the most comprehensive association and deepest free trade agreements ever, and is ready to sign them with Ukraine. They require the country to adopt hundreds of EU laws, regulations and standards and require much-needed reforms of Ukraine's often dysfunctional political, legal and state institutions. In exchange, the EU would abolish visas for Ukrainian citizens and open its common market of 500 million consumers to Ukrainian companies, resulting in...... middle of paper ......i.e., an important partner trader, energy supplier, and holder of Ukrainian debt, probably has more means at its disposal to punish Ukraine. Yanukovych had to give up oil pipelines this year and Ukrainian sovereignty next year, agreeing to join the CIS Customs Union in exchange for Putin's support for his re-election. So Russia will play the game in 2015, but I'm not sure the West will either. The main problem is not Russia or the European Union, but Ukraine itself. It was President Yanukovych who decided that he will not sign the agreement because Russia, but not the European Union, can solve its budget problem in the short term. He never had the goal of signing the deal, he just wanted to get a better price from Russia and the EU was the bargaining chip. The choice before Yanukovych is actually quite simple. He can save himself and the country, or he can destroy himself and Ukraine.
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