The article aims to simulate how a change in agricultural strategy can influence species richness within the area. The influence on agriculture is driven by politics and is based on income support subsidies paid to farmers. The subsequent flow-through effects of these subsidies on surrounding biodiversity are modeled. Thus this scenario is equally socially, economically and environmentally dependent, forming the basis for the authors to determine an accurate way to integrate both environmental and socioeconomic modeling. The importance of creating a predictive tool for a scenario-based approach is such that it allows decision makers to link policy, land use and biodiversity for a more optimal solution (Gottschalk et al. 2007). The model proposed in this literature incorporates a socio-economic model, ProLand (territory prognosis) with the biodiversity model, GEPARD (Geographically Explicit Prediction of Animal Richness Distributions) to simulate the influence of agricultural production support on the species richness of birds and carabids in a marginal region with low agricultural intensity in Germany, over a period of 30 years. The authors aimed to determine the long-term effect on the species as a result of two agricultural subsidies: the "CAP reform" which considers direct income support for farmers and the "Agenda 2000" which instead considers a production-dependent subsidy and the prices. of a marginal region was used under the assumption that these regions generally have a high nature and landscape conservation value. Birds and carabids were chosen because they provide key ecosystem services and also because they are known to respond rapidly to changes in land use intensity (Gottshalk et al. 2007). The authors quantified changes in species re...... focus of the article ...... capable of evaluating land use alternatives. Works Cited Agarwal C., Green GM, Grover JM, Evans TP, Schweik CM (2002) A Review and Evaluation of Land Use Change Models: Dynamics of Space, Time, and Human Choices U.S. Department of Agriculture, General Technical Report NE-297Fohrer N., Moller D. and Steiner N 2002 An interdisciplinary modeling approach to assess the effects of land use change Earth Physics and Chemistry 27:655-662Gottschalk TK, Diekotter T., Ekschmitt K. , Weinmann B., Kuhlmann F., Purtauf T., Dauber J. and Wolters, V 2007 Impact of agricultural subsidies on biodiversity at the landscape level, Landscape Ecol. 22:643-656Weber A., Fohrer N. and Moller D. 2001 Long-term changes in land use in a mesoscale watershed due to socio-economic factors – effects on landscape structures and functions Ecological modeling 140:125-140
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